The 60-second talking script
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The 15-month policy removal added demand to the HDB resale market. Everyone agrees on that. The argument is whether it's enough to move prices. I don't think it is, and here's the reason.
About thirteen thousand five hundred flats reach MOP this year. Fifteen thousand next year. Nineteen thousand five hundred in 2028. Roughly forty-eight thousand flats becoming sellable over three years.
That is a very large amount of supply arriving into the same market those downgraders are entering.
Meanwhile the demand side of the equation is measured in hundreds or low thousands a year, based on the appeal numbers.
Forty-eight thousand flats of supply. A stream of downgraders. You don't need a model to see which side is bigger.
Prices firm up where downgraders concentrate โ big flats, mature estates. Everywhere else, supply wins.