# 48,000 Flats vs the 15-Month Policy: Which One Actually Moves Your Price?

> **The take:** The MOP supply wave outweighs the demand this unlocks.
> **Angle source:** The counter-argument the source video never makes.
> **A/B alt title (declarative):** 48,000 Flats vs the 15-Month Policy: Supply Wins
> **Runtime:** ~60 seconds · **Keyword:** 15-Month Policy

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## TALKING SCRIPT

The 15-month policy removal added demand to the HDB resale market. Everyone agrees on that. The argument is whether it's enough to move prices. I don't think it is, and here's the reason.

About thirteen thousand five hundred flats reach MOP this year. Fifteen thousand next year. Nineteen thousand five hundred in 2028. Roughly forty-eight thousand flats becoming sellable over three years.

That is a very large amount of supply arriving into the same market those downgraders are entering.

Meanwhile the demand side of the equation is measured in hundreds or low thousands a year, based on the appeal numbers.

Forty-eight thousand flats of supply. A stream of downgraders. You don't need a model to see which side is bigger.

Prices firm up where downgraders concentrate — big flats, mature estates. Everywhere else, supply wins.

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## DM MAGNET

DM me **"15SUPPLY"** and I'll send you the MOP pipeline for your estates — which blocks complete and when.

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## FACTS USED

- MOP completions: ~13,500 (2026), 15,000 (2027), 19,500 (2028)
- ~5,500 wait-out appeals total over roughly three years

*Data as at 31 July 2026. Verify against HDB/MND before posting.*