48,000 Flats vs the 15-Month Policy: Which One Actually Moves Your Price?
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THE TAKE: The MOP supply wave outweighs the demand this unlocks.
ALT TITLE: 48,000 Flats vs the 15-Month Policy: Supply Wins
RUNTIME: ~60 seconds

--- TALKING SCRIPT ---

The 15-month policy removal added demand to the HDB resale market. Everyone agrees on that. The argument is whether it's enough to move prices. I don't think it is, and here's the reason.

About thirteen thousand five hundred flats reach MOP this year. Fifteen thousand next year. Nineteen thousand five hundred in 2028. Roughly forty-eight thousand flats becoming sellable over three years.

That is a very large amount of supply arriving into the same market those downgraders are entering.

Meanwhile the demand side of the equation is measured in hundreds or low thousands a year, based on the appeal numbers.

Forty-eight thousand flats of supply. A stream of downgraders. You don't need a model to see which side is bigger.

Prices firm up where downgraders concentrate — big flats, mature estates. Everywhere else, supply wins.

--- DM MAGNET ---

DM me "15SUPPLY" and I'll send you the MOP pipeline for your estates — which blocks complete and when.

--- FACTS USED ---

- MOP completions: ~13,500 (2026), 15,000 (2027), 19,500 (2028)
- ~5,500 wait-out appeals total over roughly three years

Data as at 31 July 2026. Verify against HDB/MND before posting.

--- DISCLAIMER ---

These figures were compiled from publicly available online sources, news
reports and community discussion. They may be incomplete, out of date, or
simply wrong. Nothing here is financial, legal or property advice.

Verify every number against the primary source (HDB, MND, URA, IRAS)
before you publish it or advise a client. You are responsible for what
you post under your own name.

Source: https://postai.sg/pseo/15-month-policy/mop-supply-wave.html