# The 15-Month Policy Is Gone. Is 2022 About to Happen to HDB Prices Again?

> **The take:** The removal will NOT cause a 2022-style price surge.
> **Angle source:** Community: "HDB resale goes brrrrrrrrr" (303 upvotes) — the loudest prediction online.
> **A/B alt title (declarative):** 15-Month Policy Removed: Why I Don't Think HDB Prices Spike This Time
> **Runtime:** ~60 seconds · **Keyword:** 15-Month Policy

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## TALKING SCRIPT

Everyone is saying the 15-month policy removal means HDB prices are about to explode. I disagree, and here's why.

2022 had a very specific setup. Covid construction delays. BTO projects pushed back years. Everyone forced into resale. Thin supply, hot demand.

Today is almost the exact opposite. Forty-eight thousand flats reach MOP over the next three years. Nearly twenty thousand BTO flats planned this year. BTO application rates at three-point-four — the lowest in four years. And prices already fell two quarters in a row before this announcement.

Yes, the 15-month policy removal adds demand. But it's adding demand into rising supply, not into scarcity.

My honest read: firmer prices in big flats in mature estates near MRT. Very little movement everywhere else. And it plays out over quarters, not weeks.

Anyone telling you prices jump next month can't tell you which flat type or which estate.

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## DM MAGNET

DM me **"15SPIKE"** and I'll send you my segment-by-segment forecast — including the segments where I think this changes nothing.

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## FACTS USED

- ~48,000 flats reaching MOP across 2026-2028
- ~19,600 BTO flats planned for 2026; June application rate 3.4 vs 3.9 average since Feb 2022
- HDB RPI: -0.1% Q1 2026, -0.3% Q2 2026

*Data as at 31 July 2026. Verify against HDB/MND before posting.*