# The 15-Month Policy Is Gone — But Are HDB Prices Rising or Falling Right Now?

> **The take:** The HDB index describes two opposite markets averaged together.
> **Angle source:** HDB Q2 2026 flash data — the most counter-intuitive fact in the story.
> **A/B alt title (declarative):** HDB Prices Fell Two Quarters While Million-Dollar Flats Hit a Record. Both Are True.
> **Runtime:** ~60 seconds · **Keyword:** 15-Month Policy

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## TALKING SCRIPT

Here's the strangest thing about the market the 15-month policy just reopened.

HDB resale prices have fallen two quarters in a row. Down zero-point-one percent in Q1. Down zero-point-three in Q2. First decline since 2019.

In that exact same second quarter, four hundred and ninety-one flats sold above a million dollars. An all-time record. June alone had a hundred and eighty-eight — nearly nine percent of every resale transaction that month.

Prices falling. Records breaking. Same market, same quarter.

Because it isn't one market. Mature estates up zero-point-six percent year on year. Non-mature down zero-point-five. Five-room flats up. Three-room down one-point-one.

So when you read "HDB prices are falling," ask which HDB. The index averages two markets moving in opposite directions, and the average describes neither.

The 15-month policy removal will hit one of those markets. Not both.

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## DM MAGNET

DM me **"15SPLIT"** with your estate and I'll show you which of the two markets you're actually in — your town's real numbers, not the national index.

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## FACTS USED

- HDB RPI -0.1% Q1 2026, -0.3% Q2 2026
- Q2 2026: 491 million-dollar flats (record quarter); June 2026: 188 (record month, 8.8% of all deals)

*Data as at 31 July 2026. Verify against HDB/MND before posting.*