# How Many People Did the 15-Month Policy Actually Hold Back? Fewer Than You Think.

> **The take:** The market impact is smaller than the noise suggests.
> **Angle source:** Community: the appeals number cited repeatedly in the r/singapore thread.
> **A/B alt title (declarative):** The 15-Month Policy Only Really Affected About 1,800 People a Year
> **Runtime:** ~60 seconds · **Keyword:** 15-Month Policy

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## TALKING SCRIPT

Here's a number that should calm everyone down about the 15-month policy removal.

Between the policy starting and March last year, HDB processed about five thousand five hundred appeals to waive the wait-out. About one in four approved. That's roughly eighteen hundred appeals a year.

Eighteen hundred. In a market that transacts over two thousand flats every single month.

Now, appeals aren't the whole affected group — plenty of people just gave up and never appealed. But it's a useful signal of scale. This was never a policy holding back a tidal wave. It was holding back a stream.

So when someone tells you a flood of downgraders is about to hit and you must buy this week — ask them how big the flood actually is.

The people who genuinely wanted to move will move. Over quarters, not overnight. That's a very different market event.

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## DM MAGNET

DM me **"15SCALE"** and I'll show you the actual transaction volumes in your estate so you can judge the size of this for yourself.

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## FACTS USED

- ~5,500 appeals processed as at 31 Mar 2025, ~1 in 4 approved (~1,800 per year)
- June 2026 monthly resale volume ~2,135 flats

*Data as at 31 July 2026. Verify against HDB/MND before posting.*